Alexandra Paulus is a PhD candidate at Chemnitz University of Technology and Dr. Sven Herpig is Head of International Cyber Security Policy at Stiftung Neue Verantwortung.
While traditionally most discussion on cyber operations has focused on great powers, the reality is more nuanced. Aspiring regional powers and their competitors also increasingly employ cyber capabilities. Recent events have made us painfully aware of this reality as Iranian cyber forces allegedly infiltrated multiple targets in Bahrain, a close ally of Iran’s regional rival Saudi Arabia. It is timely to take a closer look at how regional power hierarchies motivate smaller states to conduct cyber operations and how these cyber operations could trigger conflict.
The Middle East Has Become a Playing Field For Cyber Operations
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The Middle East has a long history of geopolitical cyber conflict. Aspiring regional powers conduct cyber operations for at least four reasons: 1) to punch above their geopolitical weight, 2) to signal claims to regional leadership, 3) to advance their regional interests below the threshold of armed conflict, and 4) to gather intelligence on rivals. In all four cases, the contenders for regional powers develop and use cyber capabilities to change regional affairs in their favor.
While the level of expertise needed heavily depends on the sophistication of the operation, the cost to set up infrastructure and conduct cyberattacks, though regional power struggles explain rationale behind cyber operations
