You may not know the name Abraham Wald, but he has a very valuable lesson you can apply to problem solving, engineering, and many other parts of life. Wald worked for the Statistical Research Group (SRG) during World War II. This was part of a top secret organization in the United States that applied elite mathematical talent to help the allies win the war. Near Columbia University, mathematicians and computers — the human kind — worked on problems ranging from how to keep an enemy plane under fire longer to optimal bombing patterns.
One of Wald’s ways to approach problem was to look beyond the data in front of him. He was looking for things that weren’t there, using their absence as an additional data point. It is easy to critique things that are present but incorrect. It is harder to see things that are missing. But the end results of this technique were profound and present an object lesson we can still draw from today.
Are You Measuring the Wrong Samples?
A problem was posed to the SRG — too many planes weren’t returning from missions. War planes are, of course, the product of engineering trades. Given a certain engine, you can fly so much weight. You divide that weight among crew, equipment, armor, and ordnance. The more you add of one thing, the more you take away from other things. The problem was that Allied planes were being shot down and needed more armor. But more armor meant fewer bombs. The Statistical Research Group’s task was to figure out how to best protect the planes without unnecessarily impacting the other factors.
The Army Air Corps noticed that after a mission, bullet holes were not distributed uniformly across the aircraft. The ..
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