The geopolitical cyberwar between Iran, China, North Korea, Russia and the liberal democracies is about to get very sophisticated
The new year is a time for reflecting on the old and considering the new. In cybersecurity, this leads to a prediction-fest where vendors tell us what to expect over the next 12 months.
But to really understand what is likely to happen, we need to examine not what happened over the last year, but what has been bubbling under the surface. From there we can assess how the criminals are likely to respond in their drive for either money or political advantage.
The global background
2019 was dominated by a global rise in geopolitical tensions between China, North Korea, Iran, and Russia and the liberal democracies. This is a war being fought economically and in cyberspace, and it is likely to increase throughout 2020.
In cyber, this means increased efforts to disrupt public opinion and affect elections – especially, of course, the U.S. presidential election – and increased efforts to steal western intellectual property and money.
But the adversaries have slightly differing motives. Iran and North Korea seek to punish the West for real or imagined slights. With tensions heightened, Iran may feel justified and motivated for cyberattacks on America. Russia seeks to weaken the West. China, however, seeks to learn from, emulate, and overtake the west both economically and militarily. In all cases, there is a blurring (and sometimes an elimination) of lines between the elite criminal hackers and the state hackers. Both benefit. The state acquires increased expertise while the criminals get access to resources and state protection.
The effect in 2020 will be an increase in sophisticated attac ..
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