Recently I've been getting asked whether I believe ransomware is on the decline, particularly for critical infrastructure. Part of the reason for this question seems to be a recent security briefing from White House deputy national security adviser Anne Neuberger, suggesting that language on the site of a new-but-already-high-profile ransomware gang, BlackMatter, could indicate that President Biden's comments to President Putin regarding consequences for attacks against US critical infrastructure may have hit their mark. Yet just this week, this same gang demanded a ransom of $5.9 million for an attack on Iowa-based feed and grain cooperative, NEW Cooperative.
So the question remains: Is critical infrastructure in the clear, is it a specific target of ransomware attackers, or is it simply on the same footing as any other organization? As we'll see — and as current developments confirm — it's clear that critical infrastructure is indeed at risk from ransomware attacks.
Before I get into the nuances of this, I want to quickly note upfront that much of this is going to be opinion or theories based on discussion with — and anecdotal evidence from — various security experts, ransomware victims, and news stories. I'm not a ransomware attacker, nor am I directly in touch with any, so I can only speculate on their motivations, interests, and plans. Where possible, I provide reference to further reading to provide context, but in general, it's important to note that broad under-reporting and inconsistent handling of ransomware incident data means that any predictions, projections, or summarie ..
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