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Intelligence analysts distinguish between secrets and mysteries. The bizarre Chinese balloon overflight of the United States that ended with Saturday’s shoot-down over the Atlantic coast has elements of both.
The public spectacle of a spy balloon floating over America has been an embarrassment for the Biden administration, to be sure. But the administration can claim that it waited for the most opportune moment to destroy the balloon and capture its secret payload — and that the strange affair was a net intelligence plus for the United States.
The political fracas is already underway in Washington. Republicans claim the Biden administration showed weakness in allowing the balloon to enter U.S. airspace. Officials counter that the previous administration, under President Donald Trump, didn’t react to several similar missions over U.S. states and territories. Yet those previous incursions didn’t go on for so long, or reach so far into the continental United States.
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But let’s examine the intelligence details of this latest incident, as described by an authoritative Pentagon official with detailed, firsthand knowledge of the event.
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First, the secrets part: The Chinese have been dispatching intelligence-collection balloons for years. The Pentagon official said Saturday night that five Chinese balloons have circumnavigated the globe, and China has conducted 20 to 30 ballo ..
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