The two-month mark of the Russia and Ukraine war has passed, with Russia almost certainly having failed to meet its initial strategic goals. While Russian commentators may try to paint the ongoing conflict in a favorable light, Russian President Putin’s ‘special military operation’ was almost certainly intended to produce a lightning offensive, enabling the Russian military to knock out Ukraine’s government and install a puppet regime within a matter of weeks. Russia clearly underestimated the capability and resolve of the Ukrainian military and population, with the ongoing war resulting in catastrophic losses for the Russian military. With the Russian military withdrawing from the wider Kyiv region and consolidating its forces for a renewed offensive in the east, we explore the big factors that have led to Russian failure and what might happen next.
Fail to prepare, prepare to fail
Two months into the conflict and it’s hard to imagine how Russian military planners could have conducted a worse operation. The scale of current losses for Russia has been estimated by the UK’s defense secretary to be around 15,000, while the Ukrainian figures suggest as many as 21,000 may have been killed in action. Whatever the real figure, the scales of losses are truly staggering. To put into context, the Russian military lost approximately 15,000 personnel during a 10-year conflict in Afghanistan in the 1980s, and approximately 7000 during the second Chechen war. Bottom line upfront; it’s unlikely that the Russian military can carry on with the same operational tempo if these rates of attrition continue.
Before the conflict even began, a distinct lack of clearly defined ..
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