A barrel of U.S. crude rose 0.3 per cent to $90.86 in afternoon trading, though it had gained more than 1 per cent earlier. That’s up from less than $70 in July. Brent crude, the international standard, rose 0.1 per cent to $94.02 per barrel.
Higher prices for gasoline and other fuel were a big reason that inflation consumers are feeling accelerated last month to 3.7 per cent from 3.2 per cent.
The rise in fuel prices, along with worries about rates staying higher for longer, have helped push up Treasury yields across the bond market.
The 10-year Treasury yield fell slightly to 4.32 per cent from 4.33 per cent late Friday. It’s been mostly climbing since sitting around 3.40 per cent in May.
The two-year Treasury yield, which more closely follows expectations for the Fed, rose to 5.05 per cent from 5.04 per cent late Friday.
Worries about a possible recession also continue to hang around, even though they’ve diminished with successive reports showing the economy and job market continue to hum.
One worrying factor is where bond yields are, with two-year and other shorter-term yields continuing to remain higher than longer-term yields. That’s an unusual occurrence that has often preceded recessions in the past.
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Another warning signal comes from the leading economic indicators index, which looks at new orders for manufacturers, consumer expectations for business conditions and other factors that could show where the economy is heading.
When its six-month annualised rate-of-change contracts 3 per cent or more, it’s always been associated with a recession, according to Doug Ramsey, chief investment officer of The Leuthold Group.
It’s been 15 months since the most recent such warning of a recession triggered in June 2022. In the past, the lo ..
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