For years, US tensions with Iran have held to a kind of brinksmanship. But the drone assassination of Iranian general Qasem Soleimani, widely understood to be the second most powerful figure in Iran, has dangerously escalated tensions. The world now awaits Iran's response, which seems likely to make new use of a tool that the country has already been deploying for years: its brigades of military hackers.
In the wake of Thursday's strike, military and cybersecurity analysts caution Iran's response could include, among other possibilities, a wave of disruptive cyberattacks. The country has spent years building the capability to execute not only the mass-destruction of computers but potentially more advanced—albeit far less likely—attacks on Western critical infrastructure like power grids and water systems.
"Cyber is certainly an option, and it’s a viable and likely one for Iran," says Ariane Tabatabai, a political scientist at the RAND think tank who focuses on Iran. Tabatabai points to the asymmetric nature of a conflict between Iran and the US: Iran's military resources are depleted, she argues, and it has no nuclear weapons or powerful state allies. That means it will most likely resort to the weapons that weak actors typically use to fight strong ones, like non-state terrorists and militias—and hacking. "If it’s going to be able to match the US, and compete with and deter it, it has to do it in a realm that’s more equal, and that's cyber."
Iran has ramped up its cyberwar capabilities ever since a joint US-Israeli intelligence operation deployed the malware known as Stuxnet in the Natanz uranium enrichment facility in 2008, destroying centrifuges and crippling the country's nuclear efforts. Iran has since put serious resources into advanci ..
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