Our panelists discussed the Biden administration’s ongoing negotiations to rejoin the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) following the Trump administration’s 2018 withdrawal, and the role of other actors in the negotiation process, including Russia and Israel.
Transcript:
MOHAMMED: Welcome to today’s Council on Foreign Relations meeting entitled “Deal or No Deal: Update on Iran’s Nuclear Program.” I’m Arshad Mohammed, diplomatic correspondent at Reuters, and I’ll be presiding over today’s discussion.
I’d like to introduce our panelists.
Elliott Abrams, who served in a number of jobs in the U.S. government. He’s now a senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. He was, most recently, the U.S. Special Representative for Iran during—well, 2020 and 2021.
Bob Einhorn, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, former senior advisor for nonproliferation and arms control at the Department of State from 2009 to 2013.
And Laura Rockwood, who is director of the Open Nuclear Network program of the One Earth Future organization. She is a former section head for nonproliferation and policy in the Office of Legal Affairs at the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Thank you all for being with us today.
I’d like to begin by asking each of our panelists, starting with Elliott and then Bob and then Laura, for sort of a lightning round of what you think are the chances that there will be a nuclear deal or, to be more precise, that the JCPOA would be revived, and if you would give us a probabilistic estimate—if you would give us your percentage guess on the odds of revival.
Elliott?
ABRAMS: Twenty percent.
MOHAMMED: Bob?
EINHORN: ..
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