Are robotaxis poised to be the Next Big Thing in North America? It seems so, at least according to Goldman Sachs, which issued a report this week stating that robotaxis have officially entered the commercialization phase of the hype cycle. That assessment appears to be based on an analysis of the total ride-sharing market, which encompasses services that are currently almost 100% reliant on meat-based drivers, such as Lyft and Uber, and is valued at $58 billion. Autonomous ride-hailing services like Waymo, which has a fleet of 1,500 robotaxis operating in several cities across the US, are included in that market but account for less than 1% of the total right now. But, Goldman projects that the market will burgeon to over $336 billion in the next five years, driven in large part by “hyperscaling” of autonomous vehicles.
We suspect the upcoming launch of Tesla’s robotaxis in Austin, Texas, accounts for some of this enthusiasm for the near-term, but we have our doubts that a market based on such new and complex technologies can scale that quickly. A little back-of-the-envelope math suggests that the robotaxi fleet will need to grow to about 9,000 cars in the next five years, assuming the same proportion of autonomous cars in the total ride-sharing fleet as exists today. A look inside the Waymo robotaxi plant outside of Phoenix reveals that it can currently only convert “several” Jaguar electric SUVs per day, meaning they’ve got a lot of work to do to meet the needed numbers. Other manufacturers will no doubt pitch in, especial ..
Support the originator by clicking the read the rest link below.
