The United States is now in what disaster-preparedness experts once modeled as a worst-case scenario. We are flooded with a highly transmissible virus that causes unpredictable symptoms: sometimes mild, sometimes fatal. The curve is not flat, or even a curve. It’s almost a line that points straight upward. More than 1,000 Americans are dying every day, on average. Soon that number will likely hit 2,000.
In this precarious moment, many Americans are planning to celebrate the Thanksgiving holiday by traveling and having dinner with 10 or more people. Pandemic models generally account for such behavior in the early stages of an outbreak, before people understand the nature of a virus, but not during the heart of the crisis. If this were an outbreak movie, and the characters were congregating in multigenerational units indoors to have boisterous conversations over lengthy meals, you’d probably be yelling at your screen.
Few things sound nicer than sitting around eating with friends and family, after so much isolation and worry over this decades-long year. But from an infectious-disease standpoint, the guidelines in this moment are unfortunately straightforward: Limit activities to those essential to life. Don’t gather socially. Don’t travel. Many doctors and public-health experts have spoken out to this effect in recent weeks. Don’t celebrate Thanksgiving in anything resembling the modern American way—with multigenerational gatherings that involve travel and prolonged conversations over an indoor meal. In short, do not do anything resembling a Norman Rockwell painting.
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